Exit Polls: Uttarakhand for Saffron Flagging
Tags: Exit Opinion Poll Result Uttarakhand Saffron Congress BJP UKD BSP Uttar Pradesh Star TV NDTV India Punjab MLA Candidate Khanduri N D Tiwari CM Akali Election Assembly Bahujan Samaj Party News Analysis;
According to exit polls BJP may be victorious. There was one and half percent difference in the votes got by Congress and BJP in 2004. On this nominal difference gives Congress 35 and BJP only 19. 15 days survey showed that BJP has edge continuous on Congress.
According to the exit poll conducted by Star TV channel possibility is:
BJP: 37
Congress: 21
Others 11
According to NDTV:
Congress and BJP both may get 25 to 35 seats
BSP 10-13
UKD 5-8
Others 1-5
According to HT-CNN/IBN:
BJP: 33-39
Congress: 21-27
Others: 8-12
The BJP is expected to garner about 34 per cent of the votes, followed by the Congress with about 31 per cent. It means that both the leading parties have gained over the last elections, largely at the expense of independents and very small parties.
India TV poll opinion says that margin of victory of BJP is greater in possible winning constituencies. Opposite to this possible winning margin of Congress is low. It means BJP has safe seats in comparison to the Congress. Congress may loose its possible winning seats on minor voting change.
One more factor is in Punjab election farmers voting behavior was effective but in Uttarakhand price rise and unemployment is main issue which affects the voting behavior. Red Light vehicles have been distributed by Congress government which is more than the number of their MLAs. This factor has made bad effect on voters..
Other factor is voting percentage of getting the candidates other than Congress and BJP was too much higher in 2004 election which was more than 50%. But in this time other candidates will get not much votes. Though if voters give hang mandate than BSP, BKD and independent will be decided factor. Main contest is between the Congress and the BJP. Bahujan Samaj Party and Uttarakhand Kranti Dal are also in the fray, threatening to change the state’s political equations.
Meanwhile, election to the Bajpur Assembly seat has been deferred following the death of Congress candidate Janak Raj Sharma Bajpur Assembly poll on March 25: EC. So election is held in 69 constituencies.55% polling was recorded as 69 Assembly constituencies of Uttarakhand went to polls
Interestingly, both Congress and BJP are going into the polls without declaring their chief ministerial candidates. Most probable khanduri will be CM if BJP will win. But repetition of N D Tiwari will not be possible.
Exit polls of news channels and satta bazaar has also given more seats to Badal Akalidal and BJP combined than the Congress. After loosing Punjab and Uttarakhand on Feb 27 Congress will be a defeated horse in Uttar Pradesh Assembly election also.
By Premendra Agrawal
www.newsanalysisindia.com/
According to exit polls BJP may be victorious. There was one and half percent difference in the votes got by Congress and BJP in 2004. On this nominal difference gives Congress 35 and BJP only 19. 15 days survey showed that BJP has edge continuous on Congress.
According to the exit poll conducted by Star TV channel possibility is:
BJP: 37
Congress: 21
Others 11
According to NDTV:
Congress and BJP both may get 25 to 35 seats
BSP 10-13
UKD 5-8
Others 1-5
According to HT-CNN/IBN:
BJP: 33-39
Congress: 21-27
Others: 8-12
The BJP is expected to garner about 34 per cent of the votes, followed by the Congress with about 31 per cent. It means that both the leading parties have gained over the last elections, largely at the expense of independents and very small parties.
India TV poll opinion says that margin of victory of BJP is greater in possible winning constituencies. Opposite to this possible winning margin of Congress is low. It means BJP has safe seats in comparison to the Congress. Congress may loose its possible winning seats on minor voting change.
One more factor is in Punjab election farmers voting behavior was effective but in Uttarakhand price rise and unemployment is main issue which affects the voting behavior. Red Light vehicles have been distributed by Congress government which is more than the number of their MLAs. This factor has made bad effect on voters..
Other factor is voting percentage of getting the candidates other than Congress and BJP was too much higher in 2004 election which was more than 50%. But in this time other candidates will get not much votes. Though if voters give hang mandate than BSP, BKD and independent will be decided factor. Main contest is between the Congress and the BJP. Bahujan Samaj Party and Uttarakhand Kranti Dal are also in the fray, threatening to change the state’s political equations.
Meanwhile, election to the Bajpur Assembly seat has been deferred following the death of Congress candidate Janak Raj Sharma Bajpur Assembly poll on March 25: EC. So election is held in 69 constituencies.55% polling was recorded as 69 Assembly constituencies of Uttarakhand went to polls
Interestingly, both Congress and BJP are going into the polls without declaring their chief ministerial candidates. Most probable khanduri will be CM if BJP will win. But repetition of N D Tiwari will not be possible.
Exit polls of news channels and satta bazaar has also given more seats to Badal Akalidal and BJP combined than the Congress. After loosing Punjab and Uttarakhand on Feb 27 Congress will be a defeated horse in Uttar Pradesh Assembly election also.
By Premendra Agrawal
www.newsanalysisindia.com/
posted by Premendra Agrawal, India at 1:50 AM
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